Will the Verizon iPhone Cripple Verizon?

illustration by Nick Bilton/The New York Times

We’ve all heard that adage “be careful what you wish for,” but could this be the case with the highly anticipated Verizon iPhone?

People have been waiting for this “dream phone” since the iPhone was introduced in 2007. Now it seems likely to arrive early next year.

But what if mobile customers’ dreams come true and this fabled device appears? Could an influx of AT&T refugees and new customers cripple the robust Verizon network?

Verizon might not think so.

Although the company emphatically declined to comment about the possibility of a Verizon iPhone, Jeffrey Nelson, executive director for corporate communications at Verizon Wireless, said the company’s network was “tried and true.”

“Some analysts suggest that we already carry significantly more data on our network than AT&T,” he said, noting that Verizon Wireless has a high number of wireless data cards for laptops on its network. “We built our network for reliability. It is our D.N.A., it is our brand — anything we do, or don’t do, in the future, will ensure a good customer experience.”

“Many people wonder if customers will be disappointed. Time will tell.”

— AT&T spokesperson.

When asked if AT&T worries that customers will leave in droves for the Verizon network, a spokesman said: “We expect when Verizon’s network finally improves on speeds and critical capabilities customers want — like talk and surf — their network will be tested.”

“Many people wonder if customers will be disappointed. Time will tell,” he said.

Charles Golvin, principal mobile analyst at Forrester Research, doesn’t believe the Verizon network will crumble under the weight of the iPhone. But he said this wasn’t due to Verizon having a better infrastructure or service. Instead, he said, it’s a matter of timing.

“If Verizon were the first mobile company to carry the iPhone several years ago, they would have suffered the same problems as AT&T,” Mr. Golvin said, noting that no one in the mobile industry knew how customers would use the Apple phone. “Now both companies have learned about the habits of smartphone customers, and Verizon will be ready to allocate their resources accordingly.”

AT&T might not see a mass exodus of its customers deserting its network all at once, as some may take a wait-and-see approach, and a number of customers are locked in to long contracts. According to the the company’s latest 10-Q filings, AT&T has 11.1 million active iPhone customers, 5.2 million of whom signed new two-year contracts in the third quarter of this year.

Mr. Golvin also pointed out that it might not be AT&T that should worry about mass abandonment, but other wireless carriers like Sprint and T-Mobile.

“There will probably be a pretty hefty migration from Sprint and T-Mobile from customers who have not wanted to switch to AT&T in the past due to service problems, but will happily switch to Verizon because it has such good record,” he said.